Trump ignored 'war game' scenario evidence that predicted Hormuz strait crisis: analysis
Donald Trump ignored a war games scenario that predicted the Strait of Hormuz would be closed following strikes on Iran, an analyst has claimed.
David Rothkopf, speaking to The New Republic's Greg Sargent, says the president was made aware of a scenario in which the United States would likely suffer the impact of the Strait of Hormuz's closure. Trump's administration struck Iran in early March, with the stated objective being regime change, though analysts questioned whether the administration had a comprehensive long-term strategy beyond the initial military operation.
A war games plan seen by Trump should have been enough to convince him not to strike Iran, Rothkopf says, but action was taken against the Middle Eastern country.
Rothkopf said, "That’s why the National Security Council was created. Well, we effectively don’t have an NSC now because he doesn’t listen to advice. And so you have this ignoramus who ignores the fact that when war games like about this were conducted, we lost.
"Okay, there was a big famous war game that was conducted a number of years ago about the U.S. attacking Iran—we lost because they leveraged the Strait of Hormuz. And he ignores that. He didn’t consult the allies. He thought they would just go along with him.
"And frankly, he thought it would be over in a minute because he didn’t sort of think through 92 million people, 50 years of history, deeply ingrained institutions in that country. He thinks he’s Superman. And of course, that’s fine when you jump off the building. It’s just a problem when you hit the ground."
Rothkopf went on to suggest some of Trump's alleged targets in Iran would, should they be struck, constitute a war crime.
"They went in, they bombed a bridge," he wrote. "We can debate whether that’s a war crime because it’s civilian infrastructure. He threatened now to go in and bomb their electrical systems. That is a war crime. That is punishing civilians.
"Obviously, this is going to harden resistance. It’s going to have an effect on how the Iranians handle, for example, the Strait of Hormuz."
