The case for and against Eagles playing starters in Week 18

The Eagles have a decision to make.

The big question as they enter the final week of the regular season is about how head coach Nick Sirianni will play their regular season finale against the Washington Commanders in Week 18.

As of Monday afternoon, Sirianni said the Eagles are “still thinking through” their decision to play their starters or rest up for the playoffs.

Here’s the situation: The Eagles cannot finish worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC but have a chance to improve their seeding and get the No. 2 seed. If the Eagles beat the Commanders and the Bears lose to the Lions, the Eagles are the 2-seed in the conference. Both games are at 4:25 p.m. on Sunday.

This is a fun topic because there are legitimately good arguments on both sides and many people will feel very strongly one way or the other.

Let’s take a closer look:

The case for playing

The No. 2 seed is valuable. We saw how valuable it can be last season when the Eagles made their run to the Super Bowl as the 2-seed in the NFC. The built-in advantage of the 2-seed over the 3-seed is that guaranteed second home game. If the 2-seed wins in the wild-card round, that team automatically hosts a divisional round game the next week. And then, if you’re lucky like the Eagles last year, the top seed gets knocked off and you’re able to host the NFC Championship Game.

And it’s not just some long shot to get the 2-seed in Week 18 either. The Athletic’s model gives the Eagles a 38% chance to get that No. 2 seed. Both outcomes necessary — an Eagles win and a Bears loss — are very possible. The Eagles are 7.5-point home favorites against the Commanders, while the Bears are just 2.5-point favorites against the Lions, per FanDuel.

While wild-card round opponents might not really factor into the decision, it’s worth noting the difference in who the Eagles would play if they are the 2- or 3-seed. If they end up as the 2-seed, they’d face the Packers (9-6-1), who are locked into that No. 7 spot. The Packers have lost their last three games to the Broncos, Bears and Ravens and lost to the Eagles earlier this season. If the Eagles end up as the No. 3 seed, they’d face the No. 6 seed, which will be either the Rams or the 49ers. The 49ers will play on Saturday night for a chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the Rams (losers of two straight) were the top seed for a lot of the season and have given the Eagles tough games over the last two seasons.

Lastly, if the Eagles do play their starters, they would have the opportunity to put forth a better offensive performance than they did in the second half against the Bills. The Eagles managed just one first down after halftime and playing the starters could offer a confidence booster going into the playoffs if they can perform better.

The case for sitting

Rest is important. The Eagles were able to escape Week 17 without serious injury but have several players who have been dealing with nicks and bruises throughout the season and those players could certainly use the week off. Sirianni on Monday explained how important that rest can be.

“If I look back and how beneficial some of the byes that we’ve had have been, that’s part of the reason why you think through it,” Sirianni said. “It’s a marathon of a season. You give your guys some rest, you get some time to think through some different things, even though you’re preparing for an opponent as you go. Both times that I’ve been here that we’ve been to the Super Bowl, we’ve had that opportunity for a bye, and that’s ’22 and obviously ’24. In ’21, we created ourselves a bye as well. You have the opportunity to do that.”

Aside from just giving key players a chance to start, resting players in Week 18 also eliminates the risk of those players getting injured. Think back to the regular season finale of the 2023 season when A.J. Brown suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the wild-card loss in Tampa.

The Eagles would also never admit this publicly, but there’s a decent chance they could beat the Commanders with plenty of backups playing. After all, the Commanders will likely have to start Josh Johnson at quarterback in this game anyway, so having Tanner McKee and Co. out there might be enough to get it done.

The disaster scenarios

We just laid out the advantages for each of these paths but there are some disastrous scenarios on each side too. That’s what makes this such a tricky decision.

The disaster if you play your starters? You try to win the game and improve your seeding and it doesn’t matter. The Bears win anyway and force you into the 3-seed. And because you played your starters, you lose one or more of them to injury. Now, you’re not rested and banged up going into a wild-card game against the Rams or 49ers.

The disaster if you rest? The Bears lose and you blew your opportunity to improve your seeding because you didn’t go for it and lost to the Commanders. Sure, you’re rested going into the playoffs but you’ve made your path to the Super Bowl significantly harder than you needed to.

What will the Eagles do?

It seemed notable that Sirianni on Monday went to lengths to explain the importance of creating a bye week and what that can mean for a team. It’s also important to note that it’s not really all or nothing. 

One option is that the Eagles could play their starters but keep an eye on that Bears game and if that outcome isn’t looking favorable, they can pull their players. But what might be more likely is that the Eagles rest some key players in this game, knowing that you can’t sit all the starters; teams just don’t have enough players for that. They can try to live in both worlds a bit, where they rest their top players but are still able to put out a competitive product capable of beating a four-win Commanders team.

Sirianni has already pointed out that whatever decision the team makes, it will be second-guessed. And he’s right. We’ll find out soon enough what the Eagles choose to do and how they fare with that decision.